So,... what you're saying is "maybe it will be really good... but then again, maybe not".

Bottom line for Herkman: do you like serving? In this day and age, "serving" means spending a fair amount of time deployed. Often on 365 orders. As is mentioned above, if you take the bonus, you will probably get some sort of deployment. Many of them are really good. And in many cases, you can lead turn it some, and go do something specific that you want to do. Not always.
However, you probably know most or all of this.

If that does not pass your sniff test, then I recommend you pass on the bonus and separate.
I would not base my decision on what Miss Cleo thinks hiring will be in '15 or '17.