I shot out 4 emails and one UAL-MEC officer called me at home. This person shall remain nameless as they said "I have to work with these guys still", but here are the facts:

The TTA says L-UAL gets the 737 if it's a "replacement" for the 757, but if they delay delivery 6 months it goes to L-CAL. At the moment they have two training plans on the table for a passed TA and a not passed TA so there is no "guarantee" that L-UAL gets those planes.

Throughout the negotiations someone leaked information to management. For reasons of circumstantial evidence it is the opinion of some UAL-MEC officers that CAL-MEC people were the source of the leaks.

CAL-ALPA told the company what their minimum number was for the lump sum without working with UAL-ALPA thereby making the retropay issue twice as difficult.

This officer did not agree with my "doomsday" analysis, but after hearing these additional facts I stand by my original premise. The issue is not getting a better contract from the company, but getting the CAL-MEC under control and stopping them from giving away the farm.

Lastly, the person's argument above basically says not having a contract will cost the company more than having a contract that is richer, and that the union is a "bear" and the company a "bunny". The MEC rep was adamant that this is simpy not true and I agree with him and disagree with the argument presented above. The contract as it stands costs $40 mil to $70 mil a month plus the $400 mil upfront. It is measured by the NMB to be 3% below the cost of Delta's contract in the first year and then more costly in every year after. Meaning the company is signing a deal that will give them the highest pilot labor costs in the industry. I see no reason why the cost of shuffling a few bases and handling some added paper work would stop the company from delaying a "sweetened" offer indefinitely plus why would the NMB EVER say "Oh, you have the highest contract in the world but want more? Sure here you go . . .

It's all about Risk:Reward, and at the moment I see way more Risk than Reward.


Sorry, but looks like I stay a yes vote for now.