This thread is a classic example of how misinformation starts. You guys are 100% wrong about the scope issue both at Delta and United.

The Scope clause in the UAL TA is a huge blow to regionals and will result in an enormous reduction of UAX flying, and not gonna get into it, but is anyone following the reality of Delta flying. All the 50 seaters are going or are already gone and there will be a net loss of 5000+ seats for Delta Express whilst Delta ordered 717s and is negotiating for 76 seaters to be used by it's feeders.

But back to the regularly scheduled programming . . . here's how the UAL Scope actually works in the TA.

1) UAX gets a one year gap to prepare. So no change.


2) UAX Block Hours are limited to a ratio of UAX Block Hours versus UA Narrow Body block hours. The cap is 120%.


3) Currently UAX flies 112% of the block hours that UA NB flies so in theory UAX can add 8% BH capacity and swap out 255 50 seaters for 70 seaters.


4) Right now UAX has about 80 76 seaters. In the new TA when UAX reaches 153 76 seaters the ratio of UAX to UA Block Hours goes down.


5) If the company does nothing but buy 76 seaters to replace the 50 seaters this clause quickly becomes overly restrictive so the company is forced to buy and fly 90 seaters to then trigger a clause allowing them to buy more 76 seaters.


6) At the end of the game the ratio of UA BH to UAX BH goes down from it's current 112% to something closer to 30% and even though they add more seats per plane the net reduction in block hours is designed to exceed the increase in RSMs.

There is an analysis flying around that says UAL can add planes without doing anything because the scope clause has no teeth. This is an absolute joke. First, no one wants nor can any company make money with old 50 seat RJs and since Delta already made this move you can rest assured UAX 50 seaters will begin disappearing in the coming years, and UAL will most definitely NOT be adding 488 RJs as was suggested. Second, there are no "70 seaters" to be had. The companies involved would have to order new CRJ705s and that would be a total waste of money when the more flexible and profitable 76 seat turboprops and EMB170 are options. The scope clause also closed the loop hole on turboprops and added a weight measurement to insure capturing the intent of the scope.

I'm no ALPA lover, but you guys have to realize they are not idiots and understood that scope was everything in this round of contract negotiations.

I'll go on record right here and now saying that in 5 years 3 things will be true:

1) UAX will be much smaller relative to UAL.
2) UAX will be flying mostly the EMB170 or similar and the 50 seaters will be nearly gone.
3) UAL will have a 90/100 plane being flown by mainline pilots.


I don't know what the industry trend will be in 20 years, but I can assure all the RJ jockeys of today that they should get their applications polished because there are major layoffs coming at the regionals and major hiring coming at the legacy carriers.

If I'm wrong and you meet me in a bar in 5 years beers for everyone are on me.

Joe Peck
UALFO