Unfortunately that is the only number I have and you have. Anything else is conjecture. I will say that the majority of pilots I fly with plan on staying as long as they can. I did fly with one Capt. 8 days ago that planned to go at 63 if he met his financial goals but he is only 54 now so I am not sure he counts.

I would never argue this point because I just don't have access to the data.

DALPA says:

the average age is 62 1/2

that we would be hiring in fall of 2012 short of economic melt down

that we will need 3000 pilots in next 3 years or something

that 300 would take early out

that plug and replace credit was ok because NW guys guys would retire and we would all move up as they replace them (750ish gone-no replacements in site)

So I actually have know idea what is true and would not pretend to.