Hi Denny,

Agree on UCAL.

I think you might flip those % for AMR. They're getting to the end of the exclusivity period, and the end of their max leverage with Horton. My gut tells me neither the pilots nor management want to talk merger with LCC from a position of weakness.

In fact, I really wonder if it will be LCC at all. JetBlue puts them in a great position in New York, which is critical. PHL does nothing for Horton, and neither does CLT. For the pilots, now that it could come to an integration, I doubt they want LCC. I think this slowly brings the vocal, but desperate mating dance with Parker to an abrupt end, as Horton and APA engage in some violent but unsatisfying make-up sex, and focus their energies on screwing someone else. Kicking Parker out of the car with his pants around his ankles becomes the icing on the cake; they put the pictures on fb, and move on.

AMR has a strong history, and a strong sense of identity. I think they want to assimilate or conquer, not marry. I'm going purely on instinct here, and have no specific intel, but I expect a surprise, with the vote yielding the first clue.