Originally Posted by
Sink r8
Hi Denny,
Agree on UCAL.
I think you might flip those % for AMR. They're getting to the end of the exclusivity period, and the end of their max leverage with Horton. My gut tells me neither the pilots nor management want to talk merger with LCC from a position of weakness.
In fact, I really wonder if it will be LCC at all. JetBlue puts them in a great position in New York, which is critical. PHL does nothing for Horton, and neither does CLT. For the pilots, now that it could come to an integration, I doubt they want LCC. I think this slowly brings the vocal, but desperate mating dance with Parker to an abrupt end, as Horton and APA engage in some violent but unsatisfying make-up sex, and focus their energies on screwing someone else. Kicking Parker out of the car with his pants around his ankles becomes the icing on the cake; they put the pictures on fb, and move on.
AMR has a strong history, and a strong sense of identity. I think they want to assimilate or conquer, not marry. I'm going purely on instinct here, and have no specific intel, but I expect a surprise, with the vote yielding the first clue.
Hi Sink,
The pilots already have a deal Parker if the need arises so I don't think the end of the exclusivity period is that big of a deal with the pilots. Obviously it will be for Horton but my guess is that he will somehow get another extension.
The APA board may have put as much thought into what will happen in the future but I don't think the line pilot will. How can they? They have no access to the "Plan." I don't think the new TA is significantly different from the first one (from what I can gather) and I get the impression that a lot of guys over there want to "burn the place down." I don't get that attitude and I don't think it will happen even if they vote it down because of the agreement with Parker.
If it works out like you think (AA tries to buy JBLU and Parker takes all his marbles and goes home), I would guess there would have to be significant divestiture of slots at JFK.
They definitely would rather "assimilate" than merge, just look at their past!!
Anyway, I just thought it would be fun to get some "wags" going on and see who comes closest!
Denny