Originally Posted by
Denny Crane
Gloopy we all know that you know the answer to your question but, me being the type of person I am, I will rise to the bait!
The key to Sailings post is "average." I can see that figure being correct/accurate. You get none or one, possibly two passengers on AK's flights to, as you put it, tiny little niche airports and then you can get 30 passengers on SEA to LAX or SFO for example. Hence the need for 35% and 50%. The average over all code share flights is still 6.........
I don't particularly like the codeshare but I don't see it going away anytime soon and we
do need the feed on the west coast. Though, just one time I would like to see us/Delta move into one of there markets like they have been doing to ours over that last few years. We could start with SEA-LAX-SEA. Heck they do it to us to MSP, ATL, and soon SLC..... I'd like to see us move in on some of their routes "in the spirit of competition."
Denny
I agree that the code share can be good for the network, and I disagree with anyone that thinks we are simply going to overfly their entire network, route for route, gauge for gauge and/or frequency for frequency. That would be stupid indeed.
But there is no instance where we need to be filling half of a 737-900ER. None. Ever. No instance where they dump thousands of seats a day between major markets where we can't put a single flight. Where we give them almost 100 pax per flight on any route, anywhere, for any reason.
They are also becoming our defacto transcon DCI carrier. That is entirely unacceptable also.
I'm not against the AS code share. I'm against the abuses within it as its currently structured and against the trend vector for shifting more and more narrowbody lift to them. If 6 pax per flight was what was boosting our pacific international then I would be fine with it. But 35%-50%, including flights to ATL, MSP and other major markets, while they keep growing and we keep shrinking is proof that it is not working, not proof that it is working.
They have a lot more growth planned. We can't keep shifting pax to their fake little virtual DL network between major markets with large narrowbody aircraft at high percentages of DL pax.
Add to that the so called LCC's that are not only barfing capacity into the market as we pull it out (most have taken a breather on that for now, although JB keeps right on adding) and they are tying their ever growing networks into every flag carrier on earth, putting negative pressure on our international which we've seen over all, despite some bright spots here and there.
Capacity dicipline is unsustainable and eventually we will have to take it to the LCC's, the ponzi sheme foreign growth bubble airlines and AS, even if that means less than stellar quarterly results in the short term.
If we need AS so badly we need 35-50% in major markets, then we need to buy AS. Their share price isn't even that high when you compare it to their outstanding shares. They are about what ours is, recent growth we gave them notwithstanding.