Originally Posted by flyingkangaroo

Look, it's just a speculation so take from it what you want. I'm guessing my upgrade will be just about 7 years if I can't get out before then. I have said many times on this forum that I think in the long term XJET combined will shrink. That said, if Delta, United, USair and AMR all start hiring then I don't see why you shouldn't expect a three year upgrade. It looks like that will start to happen sometime in 2013.

My opinion is formed through constructing all the expected retirement numbers and applying that to an average attrition at asa/xjet. What would you have me say, expect a 7 year or more upgrade like the pilots hired near my seniority? It's unrealistic. Before you give me the anything could happen, terrorist attacks, politicians, manbearpig attack etc. (as most pilots on angry pilot central do) I totally concede that to be the case. The difference is that when I was hired upgrade was 2-3 years. Now it's 7 years so it can't get much worse from here for a regional. Giving guys a realistic idea of major hiring and future pilot attrition based on current facts and future hiring statistics is prudent.