Originally Posted by
DaveNelson
Go to the NMB web site and look up the history of Presidential Emergency Boards (PEBs). You'll find that every railroad labor dispute in the past decade has been stopped by a PEB. That's because railroads are pretty much a monopoly, and a rail shutdown would have a direct, immediate, and serious effect on the national economy. The government will
never allow another rail strike.
There have been a lot more airline strikes in the history of the RLA, but only because before the recent industry consolidation, other carriers could pick up the passenger and freight loads of the shut down carrier. If the NMB were to allow, United, American, or Delta to strike these days, it would have a similar catastrophic effect on the national economy, such as a passenger rail strike would impact the economy of the Northeast.
Northwest's mechanics were allowed to go on strike in 2006 because:
- Management had trained and had a readily available pool of replacement maintenance technicians to replace the strikers on Day 1 of the walkout.
- Management had received assurances that other unionized employee groups, pilots, flight attendants, and agents, would not honor the mechanics' picket lines.
Other than strikes by pimple-on-the-butt regional and boutique airlines, such as Spirit, there will be no ALPA "battle stars" issued in the foreseeable future. No Democratic administration would allow it. No Republican administration would allow it.
That's not the way it ought to be. That's the way is is. BTW, McCain's baseball arbitration idea would not be accepted by either side.
It is interesting that you can speak about the future with such certainty, I wish I had that crystal ball a long time ago I wouldn't be here now. If what you say is true, no more job actions, no ability to strike and no McCain style arbitration, then just what is it that labor can do to incentivize management to bargain with us? I can't think of anything, I guess you may as well save your union dues, it's everyone for themselves in that scenario, capitalist are not benevolent.
I would not use the AMFA strike as an example of anything. There will always be unions with poor leadership and great expectations. The IFFA strike at TWA, CAL "83" and the IAM at Eastern are classic examples of how not to fight a labor war.
I am sure you know that under the act a Presidential PEB is only temporary, 30 could be 60 days and it expires. Congress can then step in and force a settlement, probably some sort of arbitration. If they don't, you are legally free to strike just like a NLRA union . No doubt the courts would be involve as they were in the "85" UAL strike.
An airline PEB that I remember well was at Wein over the third man, there were others, AMR. I can't remember any that were not settled during the PEB period and subsequently there was a strike. I do recall the IAM strike in "66" where about two thirds of the airlines went on strike together. The world did not end, but it did result in legislation to prevent multiple airline strikes at the same time. In that case, the business men got to go where they needed to go, but the kids didn't make it to grandmas, no big deal. The war and economy was just fine.
Since we don't see this the same way, I would only add, and what others here have already pointed out, is that you don't know until you try. No point giving up early as we did in the 2003 bk contract. Just the exercise of threatening a strike and having congress force a settlement would be a seminal event in this country. There are a lot of steps in the process before that would happen, courts, politics etc. The only caveat in this strategy is that you better be ready to walk, you may be given the chance. Obviously, I believe the strike or credible threat is still a viable and powerful weapon.
There are a few axioms of a successful strike that most people who have run them will agree.
1) Have a major issue that unifies the striking group, B scale, outsourcing, union destruction or a unifying figure such as Frank Lorenzo, Henry Frick, Ferris etc. Just striking for more money is usually a loser.
2) Be clear that the group is educated and unified. The generals hate it when they lead the charge and when they look behind them, no one is there.
3) Have leadership that is smart, believe in what they are doing and clearly understand the limits.
Except for the last one, these element do not exist in the present circumstances, but I am ready for 2016.