Originally Posted by
Avroman
The problem is the mainlines aren't growing, they have been shrinking for over 10 years. Any grounds made with retirements of pilots has been cancelled out with retirements of airplanes. This trend appears not to be ending either.
So for your example, the 2 Chineese sweatshops were closed, and replaced with 1 shiny new factory in India. Big whoop.
No at worst it's the Chinese sweat shop shuts down and the American factory workers keep their jobs but will soon need to replace most of their retiring work force.
Delta system ASMs are being held constant, what is changing is that regional ASMs are decreasing while mainline ASMs are increasing. At worst the fleet size stays the same, but mainline at Delta certainly isn't shrinking.
There will be so much movement mainline in up coming years that'll be impossible to retire aircraft to match retirements unless the legacies want to cede more market share to LCCs. They have their financial houses mostly in order, and Delta in particular is firing on all cylinders. They won't be shrinking much if anymore baring any 9/11 type event, but something like that would ruin the whole industry.
What is happening to DCI and soon to happen elsewhere is great news for long term career progression. Things could be a lot worse. We could have you guys arguing over who is going to be flying E-190s and C-Series for mainline.
Hopefully the scope line is continually held and regionals keep shrinking.