Originally Posted by
Bucking Bar
I think (second hand info) the rumors are coming from former Delta Flight Operations Management who are now working with third parties where they still interact with senior Delta management. The wildest rumors say no hiring until 2018. ( ... and no, I'm not buying either rumor ... )
So what's the reason/pilot count/length of furlough rumors to coincide with that? Its always been about a 2 year ROI for a furlough, and at least 500-1000 to make it worth their while to even consider.
Now with the Compass flow and a few additional layered, non force majeureable things in the contract, I'd think the ROI timetable would be pushed even farther out and deeper down the list.
For that rumor to have even theoretical traction, it would have to spell out how many, how long and why. In addition to whatever the number, you would also have to add several hundred mandatory and "early" retirements.
While I think any hopes for a real economic "recovery" are absolutely laughable, and things will get worse for quite a while before they get better (not including brief periods of fake bubblenomics) I'm curious as to the rationale for this particular rumor.
One of the best sources right now, in addition to the Crew Planning publications, are Sam Mason's reports on International Affairs/Alliances (aka Codeshare Committee). IMHO he's doing a great job and his reports on your Committees » Int'l Affairs/Alliances » Code Share are very good reading.
No doubt that it is. But even a best seller needs a nice jacket with blurbs and teasers. Since you've read it can you give us the quick half page summary?
It's too early to call a bottom, but I'm more certain than ever that things are going to turn around and start being positive in the second half of 2013. We're actually catching back up on the AF JV, or "should" be.
How the significant JV imbalance plays out will be very interesting to watch. IMO we gave away way, way too much in exchange for our share of a theoretical high water mark 2% AZ flying. Now the whole pie is way smaller than that and when it comes time to rebalance we'll get 49.75% (and not a penny more) of the new block hour low after suffering the full three years out of balance with no floor.
WTH were we thinking on that one anyway?