Stop thinking short term. Delta long term planners are looking at least five years out taking into account everything from economic predictions, cost of fuel, load factors, crew staffing, equipment purchases, route structure, competition, level of business travel, etc.., etc. They are not wrapped up in the "present." Their advice however does effect current decisions by Delta management "by default" those of their regional partners.
Consideration has to be given to "sunk costs." Pinnacle has many CRJ pilots. Realizing that there remains significant training requirement lingering from the reorganization, there are a lot of sunk costs (completed training, etc. ) in the pilot group. Likewise there is a sunk cost in equipment, training, etc in the support areas. Why would Delta allow Pinnacle to "go under" to save $$$ that don't even compare to new "sinking costs" for another regional to take over ? This doesn't even take into account schedule disruptions and safety concerns (low proficiency) while the transition to another regional takes place.
Pinnacle management will go through the bankruptcy motions with many of their decisions reactive to Delta long term management decisions. The first purpose of business is NOT to make a profit; it's to "stay in business." Pinnacle will not go the route of Comair because Delta needs Pinnacle and the message is being heard. No challenge to the 1113 motion and the recent announcement of Delta's CRJ900 purchases are significant indicators.
There seems to be a paranoia about Express Jet gaining at Pinnacle's expense. Ever heard of the "TOO BIG TO FAIL" theory. Think of the bailouts of the auto industry and apply the same criteria to the largest regional airline in the world. Read their page:
Airline Pilot Central - ExpressJet | Major-National-LCC
American, Continental, Delta, etc. are all served. When Express Jet (for whatever reason) experiences financial trouble, three major airlines may have to bail them out. Imagine the infighting over who pays how much and who gets priority support while other's airplanes are parked. Now throw the possibility of a pilot shortage (in five years) into the mix. Flow through will rear it's head again and it may be very competitive. There are too many major airline "eggs in one basket."
I will go out (
way out) on a limb and predict:
1. The Pinnacle Bankruptcy preceding will be settled quickly with minor impact on pilot pay and benefits.
2. At some point the transfer of Pinnacle CRJ900s to Express Jet will be halted.
3. Pinnacle will become an all CRJ900 company and will receive additional 900s from the Delta purchase.
4. Delta will establish a flow through program with Pinnacle.
5. Pinnacle will be moved to MSP.
Call me crazy or dumb whatever "floats your boat." I am not and never have been an airline pilot. I did teach ERAU Graduate Courses in Air Carrier Management but that was a dozen years ago. Now I just sit on the sidelines and "guess."
