Originally Posted by
sulkair
Everyone keeps saying that the regionals are at death's door. Esspecially with the looming retirements, that the regionals will be drained of pilots to staff the majors, and the negotiating of contracts will put the flying back with the big boys.
But what if the opposite happens. I just read that AA's new contract allows for regional partners to fly bigger equipment. What if as the Majors become starved for pilots (high paid pilots), instead of moving heaven and earth to scrape them from every nook and cranny they just downsize and farm out more and more flying to larger regional aircraft, and lower paid crews?
I'm not saying this is good, obviously this is a doomsday scenario for our career! But it would make more sense economically if you're a profit driven corporation (not meant to sound derogatory, just realistic) Doesn't the trend in business these days seem to favor outsourcing and not the opposite?
With all the regional pilots out there, do you honestly think the Majors will become starved for pilots? I think many regional pilots are starving to leave their regional for a major. The pay stinks so bad that FOs will bail ASAP. Even CAs can have a better QOL by leaving. With Delta & UAL(TA approval pending) paying $60+ an hour first year, they'll already be making more money.
What I think will happen is the majors will have plenty of applicants, & the regionals will have problems staffing their planes. Between attrition at the majors level, & the new FTDT regs and min time requirements for a 121 job, the regionals will be in trouble. It's already resulting in massive drops in enrollment in aviation programs, as well as applicants being turned away from regional FO jobs because they won't meet the 1500 hr rule in time.
So in short, while your scenario is possible, I don't think it's likely for the reasons I listed.