Originally Posted by
gloopy
You might see some of that, but it won't be a crisis. People forget the industry experienced a prologed hiring boom for several consecutive years, at both the mainline and regional levels, with most regional mins at a hard "12 and 2" non negotiable and competitive mins significantly higher than that for most of the boom.
That is a good point. A good hiring boom at mainline would probably be enough of a Siren's song to lure people into the regionals and replenish their ranks once again...
Originally Posted by
gloopy
If we face a similar or greater prolonged hiring situation, there will be a need for civilian instructors no matter what. And those instructors will be busy, training other students and instructors. Ab initio does nothing to change or mitigate that. Even if 1500 hours is bargained down to 700 or 800, that only buys them a few months relief from the pipeline, and canabalizes instructors off the top even faster, significantly lowering the average dual given for each instructor taken, who then has to be replaced.
A lot of people have gotten wise to the industry, and rightfully so. Why would someone want to go take out a mortgage to work at the regionals? What ab initio would do is ensure a steady supply at the regional level. Want to fly for Delta someday? Let Delta pay for your training, and you just have to sign a contract stating that you'll work at a DCI Carrier for the next 12 years. Or some derivation thereof.
Originally Posted by
gloopy
There are more than enough higher time pilots out of work (or just out of flying work) that can come back (yes, some won't, but there is a large enough quantity of them to soften the blow for the transition) and by the time that is absorbed there will be enough demand that just about any CFI anywhere can get 100 hours or so a month if they want it.
Don't forget the number of pilots working at all the 2nd tier operators (Spirit, Virgin, Kalitta, Polar, etc...) that already have their ppwk in at DAL, SWA, FedEx, et al.