Originally Posted by
AxialFlow
A lot of people have gotten wise to the industry, and rightfully so. Why would someone want to go take out a mortgage to work at the regionals? What ab initio would do is ensure a steady supply at the regional level. Want to fly for Delta someday? Let Delta pay for your training, and you just have to sign a contract stating that you'll work at a DCI Carrier for the next 12 years. Or some derivation thereof.
That might happen. But looking back to the last big hiring boom we didn't really see any of that. The closest thing was the CMR/DCI academy. But in any case, current and future pilots were lining up in droves, by cash or credit, for richer or for poorer, to slave away at dirt bag regionals for 16$/hr, PFT, not even being an employee and starting the first year pay clock until after all training, no work rules and crappy equipment, in many cases without APU's or even lavs.
But they did it to get flight time, to one day get to the "Paris, First Class, International" dream. Legacy contracts aren't as good as they were back then of course, but they are getting better than the 9-11 BK floor and coupled with advancement from significant attrition it will once again become a fairly powerful recruiting force for future pilots. And the regional level may be smaller but its still pretty big, and these days the worst jobs in the industry might still suck, but they'll be in an all glass jet with good AC, a lav or two, no PFT, employee from day 1 and even in some cases signing bonuses and paid hotels, etc.
Sulley was right on when he said there won't be a shortage of pilots. Only a shortage of pilots willing to accept employment at or below a certain point. A point we're already well above the last hiring boom in many ways. Worst case they will have to sweeten the pot a little bit for regional new hires. But honestly, probably not that much. Make first year pay in the 30's and up from there with fairly "quick" upgrades (from 2-5 years in many cases...or just hire senior FO's directly to the majors more often) and people will be lining up around the block. No ab initio required.
Don't forget the number of pilots working at all the 2nd tier operators (Spirit, Virgin, Kalitta, Polar, etc...) that already have their ppwk in at DAL, SWA, FedEx, et al.
Good point. Of course they too will need to be replaced. But their growth is (hopefully) petering out and soon, hopefully, they will begin to shrink as well. Partly to participate in further "capacity dicipline" as necessary, and partly because they aren't really that "LC" anymore. More like LRC (low revenue carriers).