When the industry says shortage here is what they mean: We want the flexibility to furlough at will, shift flying around to more Jr less expensive regionals. When those getting laid off leave the industry all together, we need new blood to come and take year one pay at gojet etc. So in that sense, yes there will be a shortage of pilots taking jobs at 20k/yr just to find themselves never upgrading and stuck in the right seat of an rj for the foreseeable future. Until the flying shifts again and they can either choose to go elsewhere at year one, or use their degrees to make a living. On and on and on. Oh and the retirements at the majors are going to be used to rightsize themselves while overlap in routes are eliminated after mergers.