Q: What is the wind down plan for the 200’s, and what is the plan for furloughs?
We have been told that all of the 200’s will be gone by the end of 2014, but we have not yet seen a fleet plan that embodies that end state. We have also been told that the 200’s will wind down “over the course of the next 2 to 3 years.” The lack of precision leads us to conclude that the final plan for the wind down has not yet been determined, and may be subject to change depending on fuel and on the economy. We have been definitively told that 200’s won’t start leaving the property before June of 2013.
With respect to furloughs, the company has told us that no furloughs will occur before April 2013. The total number of furloughs anticipated is between 100 and 150. The final number is dependent upon attrition over the next few months as well as the number of pilots voluntarily taking leaves. These are the ONLY furloughs that are expected during 2013.
The current staffing plan includes about another 150 furloughs in the early part of 2014, with the remainder of the furloughs coming in 2015. The total number of projected furloughs number between 500 and 600, with the actual number dependent on attrition and voluntary leaves, and the fleet composition. It is worth emphasizing that the farther these projections go out, the less certain they become, and that while we believe the 2013 projections are solid, the numbers thereafter are subject to change.
Q: When will the additional CRJ 900’s be delivered?
We expect that 12 CRJ 900’s will be delivered in the 4th quarter of 2013, and the remaining 26 will all be delivered in 2014.
Q: When will the company post another Realignment Notice?
We will answer this question in two parts. First, we just learned that the company plans to post a single class vacancy Notice during the week between Christmas and New Years that is primarily designed to increase the number of CRJ 900 First Officers by a number between 10 and 20, but may also include a small number of CRJ 900 Captains. The projected class date is February 4.
Regarding the next large Realignment Notice, the company has told us that it plans to post the Notice in the second half of January, and the Notice will include the displacement of all remaining turbo-prop pilots as well as the Atlanta wind down.