Originally Posted by
FDXLAG
I would bet on 50 years. It will happen, first in the military and than adapted for civilians.
It will start in the military
Originally Posted by
FDXLAG
That 98% UAV statistic, care to show me a graph plotting accidents per year since 1990. Bet it looks someting like this \. Show me another graph comparing accident rate of 1st, 2nd, 3rd generation UAVs.
I'm sure the newer ones are much better, but they do not operate in the "the system", they operate in holes carved out of the system. MASSIVE integration still required.
My airplane spontaneously kicks off it's autopilot about twice a month...I wonder what it would cost to fix THAT with 100% certainty
I'm not saying it COULDN'T be done, it could be done in 5 years if enough resources were committed, but you could also automate passenger trains and the interstate high-way systems...it just doesn't make economic sense to do so yet.
Transportation automation...
Elevators: Done! (one dimension down...)
Trains: Barely getting started
Over-the-road vehicles: Some technical concepts have been demonstrated, but nothing serious.
Ocean-going vessels: Can run unattended on auto-pilot (Exxon Valdez)
Airplanes: I think we have a long ways to go yet...