Chances are good, although not guaranteed.

People have been getting what they want for the most part, or spending a couple of months at another base, then getting the first choice within 2 months out of IOE. With the new bases opening SAT and ONT, things may change a bit. (I think most new hires are going to ONT now) But as long as the strong hiring continues, you shouldn't have to spend more than a couple months somewhere you don't really want to be.

Onfinal