Originally Posted by
SEDPA
+1 ... Totally agree !! One can't really count on anything in life ... nothing is certain, and that is so so true in this business ... L-UAL guys can't count on being eventually recalled nor more than you can count on getting those A-350s or 787s ... and by the way, what happened to the "global" airlines of the past that flew widebodies all over the world, with a strong hub or hub(s), but out-sourced there domestic feed?? Hint: think the letters T W A and P A N A M.
Now, for the furloughed L-CAL guys (you know, the 147), they HAVE BEEN RECALLED, so I guess you can be certain of that.
Your arguments are hypocritical. Most of the furloughees were recalled and furloughed again. It could happen at CAL. So just because a CAL pilot has a job now doesn't mean he always will. Just because a CAL guy holds 737 Cap now doesn't mean he always will. Just like at United. So you can't argue the "best case argument" for CAL and the worst case for UAL and pick and choose your timing of this. Remember that most of the top 300-400 current UAL pilots are widebody Captains, most have been for years and have a few more years left, and ALL of them were on furlough in the early 80s. So they certainly had a career expectation, just like the current UAL furloughees.
We know one thing for sure. Age 65 is causing retirements. More on the UAL side than CAL side. Those furloughees would all come back for sure. They would also progress faster than a CAL furloughees because of the velocity of retirements on the UAL side and more "big aircraft" to go to.
Also you can't imply that "every" CAL pilot would be a 737 CAP after 4 years because you'd wouldn't have enough pilots to staff the FO seats if all pilots 4+ years were captains. So what about the 20 year FOs? I guess that's the career expectation. Why not point out those guys. I met a CAL early 90s hire who's a 777 FO. If he had bid capt, plus all the other pilots, no one hired after 97 would be a Capt at CAL.
The outliers won't decide the ISL, it will be the aggregate pilot jobs, the longevity, and the career expectations will consider the faster retirements at UAL.