True for someone who was hired in 08. But remember, once the movement starts new hires will be able to get to most bases rather quickly, especially if they are willing to stay on junior equipment to get there.

Back in 2000 when we were hiring anywhere from 60 to well over 100 a month, guys were bidding FO before taking their FE rating ride. Now we have a one year seat lock for new hires, but they can still change domicile within the first year.

Using any time period during "the lost decade" as a reference will paint a very dismal picture. More stagnation is always possible, but I predict once the hiring starts over 50% of new hires get to their domicile of choice with the first year and close to 100% within 2 years.

Scoop