Originally Posted by
saab2000
There's no shortage yet because there has not yet been substantial attrition anywhere. The retirement numbers are gigantic.
I'm also not a fan of the words "Shortage" and "Pilot" being used in the same sentence but the fact remains that the industry is looking at about 1000+ retirements a year for the indefinite future.
The majors haven't really started the uptick on pilot hiring but when the retirements kick in in larger numbers they'll have to do so. That will hit the regionals very hard.
The shortage might be at the regional level, but with Comair down, PCL on the way, there are a lot of pilots on the street to make up for that.
Assuming the regional shortage does come, how are they going to make any money? If they can't put pilots in the front, they will go under. If they raise their pay to put pilots in the seat, they will go under. They aren't sustainable anymore. They will be forced to shut down and the majors will take back regional flying with bigger loads and less frequency.
I hope I am wrong, but I guess we will see.