Originally Posted by
Whidbey
Thanks for the analysis Sailing.
If we just make up with Alaska and proceed under the status quo, do we feel secure in substantially expanding our international route structure out of SEA and leaving it dependent on a code share partner over whom we do not have satisfactory influence or control?
I've heard it said a hundred times the we wouldn't move on Alaska unless someone forced our hand. That seems to me to be a defensive strategy. I don't think many industry observers would characterize Delta management as being defensive in the last several years. Is it reasonable to say that maybe Delta is forcing this issue to come to a head now, before we go ahead with big plans for Seattle?
Sailing, you said that you feel that our recently added west coast service indicates that we are currently in a dispute with Alaska. At a minimum, isn't that an indicator that Delta management considers the status quo with Alaska unacceptable?
I think you are missing a couple of things. First Alaska if I recall puts more passengers on our flights then we do on theirs but it is still small total numbers. I do understand that small numbers of passengers are often the difference on the viability of a international route but losing the Alaska option does not mean you lose the passenger on every flight. You also have to keep in mind that passengers on most airlines have always been able to interline book. Used to be common on almost every flight. You could still book Alaska even without a codeshare agreement and even interline your bags.
As far as going it alone Delta is simply not in a position to challenge Alaska. We don't have the gates at the moment. That may change in a few years with a new terminal in the works but it remains to be seen how many gates it will have. Even if we get the gates you are talking a long term blood bath. Alaska has pretty deep pockets to survive a blood bath however Delta has a bigger network to spread the losses. Call that a draw. Alaska has a better product inflight so that gives them some advantage. I don't think RA will go to war with Alaska. Time will tell.