Agree with Scoop. I tried hard to make a little extra on reserve for the first few months, but I never even got close to breaking guarantee, so I pretty much gave up. Now I just try to avoid flying, unless I have to go to ATL for short call. In that case, I'll throw in a yellow slip just to avoid paying for hotels, but that doesn't even work these days. I've been sitting in this crappy hotel room for three days and can't touch a trip because of all the white slips, even for weekend trips.

Obviously things are different in other categories, and they will be different for me in the summer (especially if I get displaced), but we are a long way from having a system-wide problem with ALV + 15. Will I eat crow in a couple of years? Maybe, but I doubt it.