Originally Posted by
sulkair
Right now the most Jr mainland upgrade is about 9 1/2 years. Not sure about HI. Probably at least 6 yrs, maybe worse.
My prediction is that upgrade will return to about a 5 year average within the next year or two. Just a guess tho. Who knows! We would need to grow significantly for that to happen, and/or mainline hiring picks up significantly. So actually that is a foolish prediction to even make.
Mesa doesn't have an inordinate number of lifers, they just make up a larger percentage of the group than they used to because we went from near 2000 pilots to 650 in a short period of time. The only people who could hold the left seat after the decimation were ~10 year guys and of course they tended to be the people who hadn't moved on, (As we all know many reach a point with age, and pay, where it doesn't make sense to move on.)
If Mesa could grow again to a pilot group of 2000 then those 200 to 300 pilots who are truly lifers (if they even represent a number that big) would only represent 10 to 15 % of the group, as they once did.
Do I personally see us ever being that big again? Not rea, but who knows?
Would have to grow to 2000 before short upgrades happen again? Not going to happen. Not enough pilots out there. You are feeding the koolaid with Vodka. You will have a better chance getting a job at mainline before you upgrade here in five years. Most Captains hear over 50 and not planning on starting over, I fly with them everyday. If your a senior Captain here you have a pretty good life. On reserve your screwed. Line holding FO not to bad if you like bringing home about 36,000 a year. But it will get worse. We are short FO's now!