The fractionals will end up being a pipeline into the majors, if the majors will hire with little to no turbine PIC time.

Netjets has 2500 active pilots, 495 on furlough. Better than 60% of the active pilots are captains. Just a guess, but many of them, think 50%, are in the age 40 range and high on the seniority list. With no mandatory retirement age attrition is less than 2%. The company is not growing and shows no sign of growth. Within the next 10 years the only upgrades that will occur will be from the top 5% of the FOs. Many of them are 40+. No way these guys stick around with no upgrade in sight, maxed out on the payscale. Add in contract negotiations opening up and NJA is getting ripe for an exodus. The only thing needed is a place for mid-list FOs to go.

There's already been a trickle of guys leaving. It will pick up. Open positions at NJA will be filled by further shrinkage and a few recalls. Most won't stick around long, the length of time predicated on how far out those recalls happen. We're still accruing longevity while out, so I'd go back to year 8-10 pay for a year or so to let NJA pay for another type rating and get current again. I'm not the only one.

Netjets hiring will be a fun time as well. It will be a hard sell into a company with no upgrade. Due to owner obligations the company is required to be selective in its hiring approach and will be drawing many from the same applicant pool as Delta / United / etc. The hiring dept will have to adapt to a new reality if and when that time comes, but requiring an ATP is not something that's going to change there.