I'm an AGR in the reserves and I have a lot of familiarity with the ARB process. After roughly 3 years as an AGR you'll meet an ARB (AGR review board). At that point you can request career status. Right now it would take a very unique situation for you not to get career status. Career status guarantees your AGR out to 20 years of active duty. In many cases folks are getting approved for extensions beyond 20 years. Being in an RPA is good since guys in the kill chain must be on a specific status that you can't necessarily get from a TR. That gives you AGR security. I'd say your chances for AGR career status in an RPA unit are very good unless something changes dramatically in the near term.