Could be. I still think on a smell test level once the company sees in a stable domestic category that a certain number of pilots are not flying on reserve then they obviously know they have too many reserves.

But let me throw this in the hopper from some random sampling. JAN12 vs APR12 we had an 8% increase in MD88 pilots and a 9% increase in MD88 Bs. Makes sense we added more jets. Also keep in mind this was 2012 to 2013, the merger has been done long enough imo. So an 8% We increased the number of jets by 13% system wide resulting in a pilots:jets ratio system wide to go down -4%.

Over the same time comparison JAN12 vs APR12 we had a 17% increase in lines and a -24% decrease in reserves as total pilots in ATLM88B decreased 8%.

If I made a "maybe" BH of REG lines x ALV, that's a 17% increase from APR 13 to JAN 12. The thing there is right now that number would be 34,265 hours of the past 17 months that's the 2nd highest and are estimating 16.4% RES. Go back to say JUL12 we had 34,160 and that was the 3rd highest and 15.8% RES, so those numbers could show a relationship but then the next month in AUG12 we ran the 5th highest "BH" and that had 20.4%/104 pilots on RES.

I don't know, I just don't see the relationship tied to the ALV. In JAN12 we ran 22% on RES followed by 15.5% the next month, so I don't think it's over staffing driving that number either. It fluctuates.

But what I see for sure is 104-115 reserves or the highest number of reserves we've had from OCT12-JAN13 and 20-22% on RES with an ALV over the time of 72.5 hrs then a major drop off with little fluctuation from FEB13-MAY13 to 15-16% on RES with ALV 75.5.

That's why IMHO I think it's bucket "take a month off" related. I just don't think they were going to let that go like they could say the ER in the winter or ATLDC9 has been.

/over thinking