Originally Posted by
Clear Right
All true, and FWIW, your many potential scenarios may come true, hostile takeover, merger, multi-partner break up, sell-off of assets, but JetBlue is doing pretty good and is growing responsibly and profitably. Did you ever think they may just survive as a stand alone, or no??
Possible I guess, just doesn't seem probable given the merger mania in general and the fierce sense of urgency for NYC that's been building rapidly over the last decade or so. Ironically thanks in no small part to Jet Blue, although it would also be fair to say it would have probably eventually happened anyway regardless.
In any case JB has something in NYC that DL would potentially like, AA could really use and SWA absolutely has to have and that there is no other conceivable way for them to get, unless they merge with AA or DL, and whatever the chances of that are I think its fair to say SW and JB being in one another's futures appears way more likely.
In many ways it could be good for JB. I just don't see them being able to grow hundreds of airframes to grow "organically" into a massive US footprint, and/or attempting any serious footprint of widebody flying on their own. There is no capacity to grow into without stepping on a lot of toes, and it ain't 2002 anymore. The legacy airlines aren't cowering in the corner gifting capacity as fast as anyone with an order book can fill it. The big 7 are down to the massive 4, are far leaner and IMO way, way meaner, each with significantly fewer competitors and more than enough cashflow to make sure that doesn't happen.