Originally Posted by
AtlCSIP
Actually, it isn't as far off as you think.
Actually it's much further off then you think. The technical, bureaucratic, infrastructure, economic, societal, and diplomatic hurdles are overwhelming at this point.
Could it be done today? Yes. But the cost would be astronomical, and it's very likely that no amount of money could produce RELIABILITY and SAFETY in the same operation, at least not to the level of today's manned operations. Automation works fine when everything goes according to plan, but how often does that happen?
One function of pilots is adult supervision...of the rampers, fuelers, dispatchers, flight attendants, gate agents, Mx, etc. Somebody is still going to have to do all that stuff, and that person may as well be on board the aircraft.
Anyone with a good grasp of engineering and how organizations work is not worried about unmanned airliners in our working lifetime.
Originally Posted by
AtlCSIP
It is only a matter if time before we become obsolete for commercial passenger carrying ops. Cargo guys will get it first. 121 Trans Con will get it next to eliminate the extra crew members during cruise, then domestic flight crews will be reduced to just one pilot who does nothing but monitor the systems. Eventually, he will retire and nobody will take his place.
Because a single pilot can become incapacitated, a single-pilot airliner would need to be fully automated anyway, so there's no economic benefit to that. If you're going to spend the money, it may as well be unmanned. The first unmanned airliners will of course have a pilot station for safety purposes until they are operationally proven.
Originally Posted by
AtlCSIP
I think the technology will remain too expensive for aircraft with less than 50 seats, but it's eventually coming to a PAX airline near you.
The cost equation is not a function of aircraft size, it's a function of automation cost vs. pilot cost. Automation cost includes unintended consequences like more crashes (higher insurance), lost revenue due to scared pax, and operational losses due to lack of flexibility and reliability.
The most likely economic benefit to airlines associated with unmanned aircraft is fear...uninformed and not technically literate pilots who will compromise on their compensation because they're afraid they'll be undercut by the automation bogeyman.
If I were an airline manager facing contract negotiations, I'd try to talk Boeing into announcing an unmanned airliner exploratory project. Even though they would know full well that it will take 100 years, just the announcement will pay dividends.
