Originally Posted by
AtlCSIP
Actually, it isn't as far off as you think. I know a UAV driver who is a commercial pilot, makes more than a senior Regional captain, has less than 300 flight hours, has thousands of drone hours, and can't get a flying job. A very high profile cargo carrier is very interested in acquiring the technology he uses for their ops. Also, if UAV time ever gets logged, it will be like Sim time, which is not flight time.
It is only a matter if time before we become obsolete for commercial passenger carrying ops. Cargo guys will get it first. 121 Trans Con will get it next to eliminate the extra crew members during cruise, then domestic flight crews will be reduced to just one pilot who does nothing but monitor the systems. Eventually, he will retire and nobody will take his place.
I think the technology will remain too expensive for aircraft with less than 50 seats, but it's eventually coming to a PAX airline near you.
It's pretty far off for Px and cargo, so far off our generation shouldn't have to worry, but as far as long term planning and the next generation of aircraft being designed, I think Airbus and Boeing would be stupid not to attempt to make whatever it is they make next single-pilot capable. At least then they can stick one pilot and a FA up there, but such an aircraft would probably 20-30 years out from coming on line. It's just a steady march.
But...there is stuff that can be done with UAVs and modern technology that replaces aircraft. Not much reason to do traffic watch these days with all the modern technology all over the place. UAVs are coming on line that can do things like pipeline patrol and the FAA has recently opened the path for getting an operating certificate. Other survey data is likely to be stored and traded, rather than replicated all the time. Some of these ARE just right around the corner IMO.