Originally Posted by
C11DCA
Joe,
You said so yourself that the EMB 175 is certificated for a max of 88 seats. But they will be flown with 76 seats to meet the scope restrictions. So how hard is it to take a max certificated 90 seat CRJ 900 and make it have 76 seats. Hint hint Delta is already doing that, so that is the new industry norm.
Current year end 2013 70 seats aircraft flying equals 185 (32 Q400's/115 CRj 700's/38 Emb 170's). 153 76 seat aircraft are allowed before the scope choke line, with a max cap of 255 70+ seaters total allowed. So currently there is room for 70 of the 76 seaters to be added before that 255 number is reached.
For the life of this contract, I doubt we will see the scope choke apply. It will take 3+ years to even get those additional 76 seaters currently allowed, just based on the manufacturers delivery slots. By then we will be negotiating the next contract.
Beer is definitely a must, layover or not, and since you are senior to me, first round is on you.
G
The Delta situation is unique in that the company desired to exit from their long term CRJ-200 leases, and so in order to get the aircraft that fit the new Delta scope clause and gave them the improved benefits of 76 seat economics, they were forced to negotiate with Bombardier to take back the 200s in return for buying 900s. For them buying EMB-175s was not practical and they could not fly the 900 at it's optimum (as does USAir with 79 seats) because of scope. Net net UAL has already ordered 70 new 76 seaters that puts them at their cap of 255 70/76 seaters so right their the point as to will they or will they not use a 900 as a 76 seater is moot. In addition to everything else, the 900 has a retail price 20% higher than a emb-175 so again it would be foolish for UAL to buy a 900 as a 76 seater since they do not have the problem of too many long term leases of CRJ-200s as did Delta and they already have plans to max out their existing fleet as allowed by scope.
I agree scope choke may not take hold within the next 4 years, but I disagree that it will never take hold. The mere fact that the company is clearly ordering 70 planes to match their max and the fact that these planes are designated as 50 seat replacements shows that many of the naysayers were very wrong. As I recall some folks were out there explaining how the company was going to run out and buy hundreds more 50 seaters because there was no limit for that category. Obviously that has not come to fruition.
But, either way I guess I'm buying the beer.
Your Ole Buddy,
Joe