Originally Posted by
Trip7
Not necessarily, as deliveries are between 2014 and 2015. Several 50 seaters contracts expire in that timeframe. It'll probably be a delivery sked like RAH's, two or three a month.
Whoever wins will have a hell of a time hiring. Mainline carriers, will be hiring faster than 50 seaters are getting pulled. Something will have to give. Like the FAA furloughs, as soon as the flight delays and cancellations start,the corporations and lobbyists will have a fit, then the 1500 rule will quickly be revised or terminated.
Mesa is also pretty strong rumor as the winner of this flying. They've turned into a pretty efficient and cheap 70/90 seat operator. They are also the first iPad approved carrier, something our big strong "economies of scale" Skywest Inc has been unable to do for any of their subsidiaries.
SkyWest has had its day in the sun. If they can not hire enough people they will simply retire more 50 seaters as mainline wants. Service to International falls, BJI, etc etc will just cease to exist. There will be no pilot shortage. BTW with how many 50 seaters SKYW has I would be very frightened about the future. Capacity will be cut at the regionals just as it has been cut at mainline. In 2000 Delta alone had over 10,000 pilots. Northwest/Delta combined does not have much more than that.