Originally Posted by
Sr. Barco
This is the best source from the list IMO:
http://www.aabi.aero/AirlinePilotLaborSupply1.pdf
It's 36 pages long and is an unbiased, statistically based forecast. I disagree with two major assumptions in the report; 1) There will a be net growth in the airline industry, 2) Regulators will not change the playing field. The rest seems very accurate to me.
It's interesting to note they do not consider the issuance of a commercial pilot certificate to have statistical significance on the supply of professional pilots.
Thank you for posting that, I just glanced at a couple of pages, and I now have some stuff to take care of...I will read it later.
Admittedly, I get a little concerned when I see reports put out by aviation University programs, because I worry about how much self-serving bias creeps into their reports. I say that because my own alma mater really touts the pilot shortage, and their motives seem driven by keeping students' butts in seats for the faculty to keep their jobs.
My favorite pilot shortage news bit they put out was about a year ago when American mainline was canceling flights due to pilot staffing. Out comes the faculty telling everyone "This is a sign of the pilot shortage!!" They neglected to mention AA *still* had pilots on furlough. Oops. They faculty knew this, too, but they just conveniently left that part out. The faculty also writes pieces to various media and on new student brochures which lead one to believe that four year university programs are the only way for civilian pilots to make it to the airlines.