Originally Posted by
block30
First bolded-You cited Roger Cohen?!
Second bolded- Great Lakes needs to play ball with their pilots and get them a new contract. What do first year FOs make, 14k? Doesn't sound like a shortage, sounds like the free market working. (I respect the skill of GL pilots, by the way, no beef with them.)
Third bolded Why did the UND study show declining interest in becoming a pilot? How would keeping pilots easily replaceable (decrease in pilot scarcity power) fix that?
Fourth bolded-I don't know why the NBAA would even care since the ATP does not apply. I know of part 91 gigs that can and do hire 250 hour pilots. (Go figure that their pay also sucks).
Fifth bolded- Not an Air Force website, looks really hokie by the way. Screams SJS.
Sixth bolded - Republic also needs to play ball with their pilots and fix their contract. I don't know of any pilot group as large and as angry as them.
The rest? Just parroting the same tired story on a slow news day.
Notice a trend in the groups screaming pilot shortage? They all treat their pilots badly, or recognize pilot treatment is bad.
Thanks for the analysis, I think these articles and studies still point to a pilot shortage.
Cohen represents the regionals and wants to keep his cushy job. The regionals are running out of pilots, they know it, and he has to make noises about it. Like him or hate him, he and the RAA are reflecting the concerns of the sector of the industry they represent. If they are concerned, it lends credence to the probability that we are headed for a pilot shortage.
Great Lakes was paying poorly and finding pilots up to now, something is changing. If it is as you say, "the free market working", that indicates supply is drying up.
The UND study attempts to explain the drop in pilot supply. The existence of such a study points to the existence of a pilot shortage. It's a good study. If we are losing entrants to pilot training when we need an increase to keep up, a shortage is very likely.
The NBAA article is a response to my urging them to put out some numbers so the industry can prevent a serious problem. In their article they cite the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics numbers. There are nearly half as many non-airline commercial pilots as airline pilots in the U.S., and their demand is expected to be almost twice as much as airline demand. That floored me, I've looked at a lot of studies on pilot supply and demand, and never seen mention of demand outside of the airlines. Clearly this shortage is going to be far more serious than anyone is currently predicting.
I don't see the article on the Air Force coming up in that link. It was originally an article in Janes Defense Weekly, and talks about the lack of interest in being a fighter pilot, even among Air Force Academy students, something unheard of before. Hopefully you can read it and decide if your conclusions are justified:
http://www.fighterpilotuniversity.com/****/why-be-a-fighter-pilot
We all know we aren't paid enough, no need to delve into that.
I'm not sure why, but it seems the only two groups not expressing serious concerns about a pilot shortage are the major airlines, and pilots.