Originally Posted by gloopy

It is JB, but not out of NY. At least, not initially. They will use their DL/AA/US provided sanctuary of BOS at the test bed, and pad it with every flag of convienience carrier that flies there as well. They will jump on ATL (again) and either CVG or MSP initially. Probably CVG since the airport CEO there still thinks there is the "Southwest Effect" of the 90's. CVG will likely be heavilly subsidized. Not sure about ATL although I'd be shocked if it wasn't to some degree. They are also about to get really bold into SA/LA.

They think their current trend against a BK AA will continue and they think DL's trend to panic run away from capacity to preserve yields at all costs serves up DL markets to them on a silver platter that they can pick from at their leisure. I think they are in for a world of hurt against AA in a year or two tops, once they get their act together. DL's reaction is less than certain. Either way I think its a fantastic thing!

First of all, its inevitable. Our path towards 99.9999999% load factor for all eternity, managing yields by endless consolidation and shrinkage is just begging for predatory competition. Its going to happen either way, and DL has proven it can hammer JB hard when it wants to. All this could end up being a mute (moo?) point anyway since they are very likely going to be a participant in future consolidation, but in the meantime it will force DL's hand. Investors have finally started to question DL's capacity cannibalization as an endless strategy. If a very vulnerable "LCC" can poach DL capacity at will like JB thinks they can, investors will start to see that the emperor has less and less clothes on by the day. If DL can't/won't fight back and win this coming assault, DL won't be and won't deserve to be anything near "investment grade" at least not for long.

This will force our hand and that's a great thing. Our current trajectory has to change, and this is the perfect catalyst to test if now is the time its starting to.