Originally Posted by
Timbo
Remember what comes out of Richard's mouth every time he talks to...anybody?
Capacity Restraint
The only growth we might see will be the slow transition of some routes, from 50 seat RJ's back to little mainline jets, the 717. But even half of those are replacement jets for the DC9's. The 737's are replacements for the 757's. The anemic wide body order may just be replacement jets for the oldest 767's and A330's.
I don't see much in the way of international growth for Delta, not with Emirates, Qatar, Etihad, and Singapore buying hundreds of 777's and 380's, flooding the international routes with cheap seats. They are going to kill yields. That's why Richard is going after code shares with....everyone else.
So, Growth?
Yeah, in the recapture of RJ flying we gave away 20 years ago. But as T points out, if you're already senior to that, I just don't see any "Growth" coming in the Wide Body world.
I'm with Timbo.
Originally Posted by
johnso29
According to our fleet book Delta's A330s are very young. The oldest being built in 2003. I would think that the B767-300ERs have a ton of life left. American and United are still flying 767-200s. It looks like a lot of our 767-300ERs were built early to mid nineties. I wonder what the airframe lifespan is.
WRT growth, I think there is still room in Asia & South America. I still think Emirates won't profitably fill all of WBs they have on order, but only time will tell.
They might not profitably fill all of the WBs but they flood the market. It'd be like us putting 757s on wherever JB flies out of BOS. If the goal is to make money then that's probably not a good way to do it; but if the goal is to drive someone out of the market it's not a bad idea.
As to the 7ERs, I wonder if repeated domestic has their cycle life higher than it should be? That can time out an airframe since a lot of maintenance is predicated on whatever comes first - hours and/or cycles.