My opinion there is no current pilot shortage is based on a recent year of personal dealings with HR departments at various regional airlines. They all spell clearly the same message- we skim off a few desirable targets among the many people we interview each month and send the rest home, and we are not that worried about finding cheap pilot labor any time soon. This is definitely the impression I get, I have no bone to pick with anyone, it is merely what I am seeing. I am educated, smart (enough), and I thoroughly convinced I read this situation about like it is.

And in an earlier post I linked to the US BLS web page on pilots which says no shortage is coming either. They are supposed to know about such things, it's what they do, but I admit I am sketchy on how they do their magic. Obviously if they knew for sure Wall Street would be crazy about them.

I have a theory about this pilot shortage prediction, that regional pilots have been jerked around so long they have gradually drifted to nearly delusional thinking to give themselves a little hope. It's an overly competitive industry and one that really dishes out the punishment, no doubt there, so they have my sympathy if they feel mistreated. But a lot of things tell me the supply of pilots in the US is very strong, just like it always was. Wages will remain low. The entire regional airline industry hinges on being able to gather cheap pilot labor and they are not worried in my experience.

Could it change as you describe? I do not know. I hope so, low-end airline pilots deserve much better than this. It remains speculation at this point what will happen. At this point though, Eagle is going to hire another 90 pilots in 2013 and all the other regionals are going to continue to cull about 30-40% out of any given interview group. That's what they do. As before.