Originally Posted by
Denny Crane
From a cursory check (there could be someone more junior somewhere), junior captain is is around 8150. Assuming 11000 pilots and no growth or shrinkage, that's about 2850 from the bottom. Thru Dec. 2020 we have 2327 age 65 retirements.
As an early 2014 hire and bidding captain at the first possible time in any base, you are probably looking at 2021-2023. So, at most around 9 possibly 10 years (if you assume 11500 pilots currently which is probably closer than 11000). As others said, probably NYC M88 or DTW 717 will be junior categories.
Denny
Assuming everyone retires at 65, which won't happen. Use 63 as an average and subtract 2 years from that. Add in just a little growth and you'll be looking at another 2 years or roughly 2017/18, IMO.