Originally Posted by
Columbia
Assuming everyone retires at 65, which won't happen. Use 63 as an average and subtract 2 years from that. Add in just a little growth and you'll be looking at another 2 years or roughly 2017/18, IMO.
How do you figure? Actually I believe if you will take all of the early out pilots out of the equation then average the ages you will find the retirement age is closer to 64. You cant include the early out guys because they retired under a early out program that is not being offered now.
Maybe my math is bad but I don't see how you 2017/18 could be possible Let me try my numbers
2014 hire seniority number 11500 - 530 retirements between now and 2017 puts him at seniority number 10970 approximately 2950 numbers away from most junior capt. Lets say I'm off by 20% still 2350 numbers short of capt.