Every merger is unique. However, every merger considers career expectations. Determining career expectations in akin to reading a crystal ball. In NWA/DAL, for example, career expectations were based on the theoretical. In the UAL/CAL, since it's been three years since the merger and CAL has executed it's planned fleet change (retirement of 737-500's, 767-200's, and delivery of 737NG's and 787's), what would have been theoretical in 2010 is now fact. Therefore, what has happened since the corporate merger is most definitely relative.

Whether you take the 2010 list and determine career expectation in combining lists or you take the 2013 list and combine from there, both scenarios should take into account the direction (career expectations) that both airlines were heading at the time of merger. That's been the case in almost every pilot seniority integration.

There are many factors (besides the movement at CAL) that go into career expectations. For example, UAL pilots have more widebody aircraft and an expectation for wb Captain. If you remember, at time of merger, there were many questions surrounding the future of the 747-400's. Had the seniority integration taken place in 2010, I have no doubt that the CAL attorney's would have argued that the 747's would exit the fleet in the near term in favor of 787's. However, as we have seen since that time, UCAL has committed to upgrading the 747 fleet and keeping them in service for at least the next ten years. That fact strengthens the UAL position (as it should). Again, what has happened since 2010 in no longer theoretical but fact.