Originally Posted by
forgot to bid
I'm hoping 300 becomes the "start in January and then hiring indefinitely after that" that keeps being bandied about.
If you go back to January 2013, we had 56 scheduled retirements in 2013 with 21 already retired and 35 that will retire. There will be 121 in 2014 for a total of 177.
If you look at the seniority list in Jan vs now, we've had 61 leave. However, that's the seniority list and I didn't go through to check the percentage of those scheduled for retirement or who have left were actually line pilots. But anyways, by that number 40 more have left than the scheduled 21 and I think that's the norm.
Anyways, what is the delivery rate with the 717s? 6 in Oct and 3 a month after that? Assume 100% of the 739s are non growth for a moment and we've been told 100% of the 717s are growth, so that's:
- 48 B717s x rumored 7 crews / 14 pilots per jet = 672 needed pilots.
- 270ish pilots were funded internally in the March AE plus whatever changed in the recent one, but stick with 270. We still need 402 717 pilots (672 - 270).
- Plus 177 retirement replacements.
- We need 672 - 270 + 177 pilots or 579 pilots.
Why is it only 300 if it's already known the 717s are all growth plus retirements?
As has been stated, they typically hire a bit more than they say they will, thank goodness. The cycle you and I were hired on was originally projected to be ~300. It ended up being a bit over 700. Hopefully the retirements will keep ticking at a better than age 65 pace (as logically they will), and the 717 deliveries will in actuality add more bodies needed. Best case scenario is the widebody order is growth. Whatever the NBs are coming will likely be more old model 757, 88, and 320 replacements. Let's hope this age of DL hiring doesn't stop for years.