Sigh... Commuting sucks. Go where you don't have to commute. Otherwise, it's still a giant guessing game. Though, you should ask yourself, why is the upgrade so much quicker at TSA? Could it be that no one wants to stick around? Moreover, if the OP won't have the newly required experience to upgrade in one year, what does it matter? By the way, don't mistake the fact that the most junior captain at SkyWest has been here for 6 years and take it to mean that it is a 6 year upgrade. We barely hired between mid-2007 and 2010. Once things start moving in earnest again, that "time to upgrade" will drop, granted not to 1 year, but that's because a lot of people are very happy here. YMMV.