Living outside of U.S. made me realized just how much we live in a bubble not realizing what's happening outside...

Due to the signifigance shortfall of new pilot entering the career field, the regionals, NOT the majors, will have a problem with hiring. Does that mean the majors will reduce regional capacity? Maybe, BUT maybe not!

Considering the U.S. is not the only country with pilots who may meet the FAA new requirements, other countries have qualified pilots who are also seeking employment globally. Under the H1B visa program, if an U.S. employer is unable to find and hire a professional employee for an unfilled professional position, said company may temporarily hire a foreign national from outside the U.S. under the H1B visa program.

I remember when I use to fly for a 135 freight company in early yr 2000, 30% of its pilots were foreign nationals working under the H1B visa program because the company was unable to attract and hire legal resident/citizens to fill pilot positions due to the hiring wave that was occurring at the regional/major airlines.

Some scenarios may happen if the regional airlines decides to exploit the H1B visa program.

1. If they are able to find and hire qualified foreign national under the H1B visa program, then regional salaries will remain as they are. Majors retain routes and infrastructure. Everything remains status quo.

2. If regional airlines can not attract foreign national pilots, Regional airlines lose flying and majors lose routes to their competition.

So whats the business solution...

How I see, If regional airlines want retain their current fleet size, and the majors retain the current route structure, the majors will have to increase their regional partners departure fee. The regional airlines will inevitable have to increase their salaries to attract qualified pilots (whether resident/citizens or foreign nationals), OR...Majors reduce regional flying and obtain bigger aircraft while reducing flight frequencies.

Now I know there will be some that will say the regionals will not exploit the H1B program, but it was also be said the majors would take back flying from the regional partners. Currently facts do not support this trend. In fact, its the opposite, Approx 50% of Delta domestic routes are flown by regional airlines compared to 30% in 2005 and United just announced increase regional flying.

Something to ponder...