So basically the biggest ongoing complaint I have heard from my CAL friends (who thankfully do NOT frequent APC) is the sincerely held belief that CAL was going to grow with or without the merger. So I thought I'd lay down some simple facts. What's funny is that I have no doubt the CAL brethren here on APC will view said facts as staunch proof that their growth since 2010 is all their doing and was coming regardless of the merger whilst the UAL brethren will most certainly disagree.
Fact 1: TPA exhibit A.
Which clearly shows a potentially large increase in 737 planes as there were only 32 remaining 737-500s to be retired.
Fact 2 from CAL 2009 Annual Report:
Capacity. Because of the adverse economic conditions in 2009, we reduced our consolidated capacity by 5.2% in 2009 and rescheduled aircraft deliveries. We do not anticipate returning to significant capacity growth unless the level of demand for air travel, economic conditions and our financial performance improve sufficiently to justify such growth.
Fact 3 the current UAL Fleet Plan:
Fact 4: Since May of 2010 the combined UAL fleet has gone from 694 planes to a planned 692 planes for the end of 2013, but the UAL fleet has seen a net decrease and the CAL fleet has seen a net increase.
Fact 5: CAL 767 flying has diminished because they lost 10 out of 26 planes.
Fact 6: CAL has a 787 to replace it's retired 767.
Fact 7: CAL 737s are flying 64% of the flying that UAL 737s did in 2008.
So why do you bring this up brethren Joe?
I'm glad you ask.
Because, it has been hypothesized that the CAL MEC raised CAL pilot expectations overly high and as a result have created a sense of entitlement and possible disappointment for a long time to come.
To me the facts show that any expectation of "organic growth" at CAL absent a merger have been shown by reality and history to have been zero.