Originally Posted by
Al Czervik
Their batting average is not that good to stop a merger or otherwise. I have been doing a lot of reading on the subject. I could not find a good statistical total. But... It seems that the majority of the antitrust lawsuits (mergers & others) do not stop the merger or constitute a breakup. Most often the lawsuits are settled outside of the courtroom.
Or the merger is eventually called off. We'll see where this is in a month or two when everybody calms down the attorneys sit down and talk face to face.
Upon reading the filing, it is hard to see where changes could be made to make it agreeable to DOJ. The changes necessary would likely make the merger not worth doing. I.E. keeping Advantage Fares, divesting slots at Reagan, agreements not to close hubs. The changes would likely handcuff the new Airline to the point it would not make financial sense. As to divesting slots at Reagan, the hub/focus city at National has long been one of US Airways strongest sources of revenue. At one point before merging with America West it represented something like 52% of total revenue which is why the shutdown of Reagan post 9-11 was so devastating to US Airways financially. Loose too much in DCA and the value of the company takes a huge hit.
We'll see what happens and anything is possible in this industry.