Originally Posted by
CanoePilot
if the doj doesn't let aa and lcc merge there is no way in hell they let AA and jetblu merge.
Also why would aa want jetblue? Other than JFK jeblue doesn't offer anything aa doesn't already have. But I stiill think my first point stands, if aa and us can't merge I highly doubt they would let AA take out the LCC competition in NYC and get >60% of all jfk slots.
If this merger fails that's the end of merger mania in the airlines till the next round of chpt 11.
UAL has 70+% of EWR. Looking at NYC as a whole (JFK/EWR/LGA) then a combined AA/jetblue would put each of the big 3 at between 23-26% passenger share, which is a very level playing field.
It will all hinge on how the DoJ makes their argument. If they make the case that US is a low cost carrier and that is why AA can't merge with them then I agree that Jetblue/AA won't happen either for the same reason.
If the case is made that US/AA reduces competition for 1-stop itineraries then the door could be open for AA/jetblue.
Either argument is weak in my opinion, and AA/US will get the merger to go through.