Originally Posted by
Flyby1206
UAL has 70+% of EWR. Looking at NYC as a whole (JFK/EWR/LGA) then a combined AA/jetblue would put each of the big 3 at between 23-26% passenger share, which is a very level playing field.
It will all hinge on how the DoJ makes their argument. If they make the case that US is a low cost carrier and that is why AA can't merge with them then I agree that Jetblue/AA won't happen either for the same reason.
If the case is made that US/AA reduces competition for 1-stop itineraries then the door could be open for AA/jetblue.
Either argument is weak in my opinion, and AA/US will get the merger to go through.
The DOJ's argument is that the UA merger was a mistake and they don't want to let another happen.
They made both arguments in the complaint they filed. I think if they are successful then no more mergers allowed other than a few low cost carriers merging with each other.