Originally Posted by
CRM114
You're right, I did only skim the first few pages and didn't get to the conclusion that mainline will fly regional growth aircraft. I also was not clear about my comment about 90 seat scope in that I should have said "90 seat relief" for the company in scope.
Thanks for taking the time to correct me.
That said, it sounds like we both agree that the future of regional flying at UAL will include, in part, the in-house production of those ASMs.
I agree we agree but does everyone else agree
and sorry for being "stiff' in my correction.
Based on Swelbar's analysis as well as the analysis of RJ manufacturers, I believe the bulk of future regional jet orders will be 76 seat planes and larger so I believe that the UPA Scope Choke plan will work. I think it will be slow in coming perhaps taking a full decade to come to fruition, but given the history of regional outsourcing many mainline pilots believe the company will subvert Scope Choke by flying 90 seat planes as 75 seaters. I do not see this as likely or efficient in the long run so I am not a believer in that scenario. Unfortunately we won't know the answer for at least another 3 to 5 years.
On the other side of the coin I have expressed my great concern that Pinnacle's/Endeavour's bankruptcy contract is a genuine threat to continued gains for other regional pilots, and I wish ALPA could come up with a strong plan of action to counter Delta Airline's and United Airline's whipsawing of the regional contracts. As it pertains to the OP and his questions, I believe that regional carriers are being forced into ridiculous concessions that I wouldn't wish upon anyone, but I do not believe that will alter the nature of the shift in ASMs coming over the next decade. Like I said though we won't know for quite some time to come.
P.S. Sighted should have been cited in my earlier post. That's what I get for posting too quickly.