Originally Posted by
Trip7
There will be large regional aircraft to replace most of the 50 seaters but it won't be 1 for 1 so overall fleet wise XJT will shrink. Attrition is about to pick up which will help movement in the near term but there is a ton of uncertainly with 50 seaters coming off contract and the Delta rate reset in 2015/2016 timeframe.
I understand the not chasing upgrade advice but understand most giving that advice were scarred by the unprecedented pseudo 5 year seat lock handed down by the Age 65 rule. If your plan is to get in and out of the regionals as quickly as possible, there are much better options than XJT. If upgrade is not an immediate concern then XJT is a great place to hang your hat for a while, as the FO yearly raises continue well past year 4
. Just for perspective I've been at XJT 6 years and I'm 400 numbers away from upgrade.
You're correct there are several occurrences where chasing upgrade burned folks. But there are also a ton of occurrences where it worked out. Many pilots rode the 04/05 Mesa gravy train to fast upgrades and mainline jobs 3-5 years after being hired.
My advice is just one perspective. Gather as much advice/info as can, then make a decision based on what's best for your QOL needs and career goals. Good luck!
You need to go back and read the SCOPE sections of the Delta and United contract. Delta will have 125 50 seaters total in 2 years. That means that even if Pinnacle parks all 50 seaters there will be a good bunch of 50 seaters parked at other places. Also Delta only has 30 airplanes left without a home after that Delta will be maxed out on SCOPE.
United has already awarded 70 large RJs and I believe the Q400's count as well but I am not 100% certain so that means that Untied already has 100 76 seaters under contract with the regionals, they are approaching the time where they must park a whole lot of 50 seaters with not many 76 seaters coming in. SKW already stated that INC will park 250+ airplanes due to mainline SCOPE in the next two years. People are blinded by the recent airframes awards as the SCOPE clauses are not triggered just yet.
AA and US Airways will likely see a SCOPE clause similar to that of United and Delta. Someone just posted a Mesa PDF that does a comparison of contracts at the regionals and there are others floating around that compare SCOPE clauses at mainlines, I suggest people become familiar with these because you are being whipsawed against each other and sadly must pilots are not familiar with their own contracts.